World Order in 2050

Measured by GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, which adjusts for price level differences across countries, the largest E7 emerging economies seem likely to be bigger than the current G7 economies by 2020, and China seems likely to have overtaken the US by that date. India could also overtake the US by 2050 on this PPP basis (http://www.pwc.tw/en_TW/tw/publications/events-and-trends/assets/e248.pdf).

The weight of global economic activity is already shifting substantially from the G7 countries toward emerging economies in Asia and Latin America. Over the next 40 years, this trend is expected to accelerate.GDP projections from present day through 2050 are made under the assumptions that markets stay open and macroeconomic policies remain sound; additionally, catastrophes—economic, natural, or geopolitical—are assumed not to occur.

Projections: The “Rise of the Rest”

As developing countries house an increasingly larger share of people, capital, and technology, their share of global GDP will increase, shifting the economic balance of power.

"As China, India, Russia, and Brazil join the global middle class, brains and money will increasingly flow away from the United States"

However, as these countries become the world’s largest economies, as well as the most populous, they will not rise among the world’s richest, breaking the decades-old correlation between economic size and per-capita income.

• China, India, and the United States will emerge as the world’s three largest economies in 2050, with a total real U.S. dollar GDP of 70 percent more than the GDP of all the other G20 countries combined.
• In China and India alone, GDP is predicted to increase by nearly $60 trillion, the current size of the world economy. However, the wide disparity in per-capita GDP will remain.
• However, despite these dramatic increases in total GDP, U.S per-capita GDP will be nearly three times that of China and over eight times that of India.
• The next forty years will be a critical period for the European Union (EU) and its 27 members. As economic interests shift away from Europe to favor Asia and Latin America, Europe will likely undergo a difficult and turbulent transition.
• Japan’s influence in Asia will recede further with China’s rise and Indonesia’s rapid expansion. Japan, Asia’s most powerful nation in the twentieth century, will be pressed to develop ever closer economic ties with China, an economy over seven times larger in U.S. dollar terms in 2050, as well as with India, which will be 2.5 times larger.
• Demographic drivers will significantly influence the economic transformation. UN predicts the global population will reach 9.2 billion in 2050, concurrently, the global labor force is expected to expand by nearly 1.3 billion.
• Spreading technology will bolster world economic growth. Developing countries will continue to absorb well established technologies, such as electricity and sanitation. 
• Poverty will no longer be a serious economic and humanitarian concern in 2050. Rapid growth in the emerging economies will pull hundreds of millions of people out of absolute poverty, leaving only a small fraction of the G20 population behind. Absolute poverty will, however, remain a significant, though much smaller, phenomenon in Africa. China and India will be responsible for lifting 600 million more people from the most extreme forms of poverty. 

Risks

Some risks could introduce major discontinuities and undermine these projections, slowing (though not stopping) world economic growth and the convergence process in developing countries.

• Geopolitical Breakdown : The projections suggest that the next forty years may witness one of history’s greatest shifts in economic and military power.Because globalization and economic growth do not occur in a vacuum, maintaining the cohesion of the international community is crucial to its continuation. Advanced countries will expect more from these emerging powers, from contributions to international institutions, to aid, control of carbon emissions, respect of intellectual property, and contributions to international security and economic sanctions against deviant regimes.The rise of several developing countries and the fact that, while they attain the status of giant economies, they remain much poorer than advanced nations, could make maintaining cohesion more difficult. In particular, the governance and functioning of the bedrock international institutions—the G20/G8, World Bank, IMF, WTO, Global Stability Board, and the UN—will have to be rethought.

• Financial Crisis and Depression : The political challenges of dealing with macroeconomic imbalances are formidable. The next set of vulnerabilities may be uncovered in emerging markets, which have become more attractive in the eyes of investors and may have to deal with a wall of inflowing capital in coming years.

• Protectionism : As emerging markets rise in importance but remain relatively low-wage economies—China is now both the world’s largest exporter and one of the most competitive low-wage economies they will become too big to ignore, and pressures to protect against them will increase.

• Climate Change : Climate change will hurt global growth through effects on health outcomes, agricultural yields, involuntary   migration, and the destruction of infrastructure.

• Global Tax Environment: Challenges for Multinationals : For multinationals need to operate in many locations makes tax management especially difficult and just complying with the tax law is far from easy. The main problem is large number of laws and regulations to consider and accelerating pace of change.

World Order in 2050

• China remains on a path to overtake the United States as the world’s largest economic power within a generation, and India will join both as a global leader by mid-century.
•  Traditional Western powers will remain the wealthiest nations in terms of per capita income, but will be overtaken as the predominant world economies by much poorer countries. Given the sheer magnitude of the challenge of lower-wage competition, protectionist pressures in advanced economies may escalate.
•  The global economic transformation will shift international relations in unpredictable ways. To retain their historic influence, European nations will be pressed to conduct foreign policy jointly, an objective implied by their recently ratified constitution, and will need to reach out to emerging powers. Japan and Russia will seek new frameworks of alliances. The largest emerging nations may come to see each other as rivals.
•  Absolute poverty will be confined to small pockets in sub-Saharan Africa and India, though relative poverty will persist, and may even become more acute. Carbon emissions are also on a path toward climate catastrophe, and by mid-century may constitute a serious risk to the global growth forecast.
• International organizations such as the IMF will be compelled to reform their governance structures to become more representative of the new economic landscape. Those that fail to do so will become marginalized.

 In conclusion, we can say that over the next forty years, low- and middle-income countries in Asia and Latin America will become an immensely powerful force in the world economy. The United States will remain a critical player, but will cede at least partial authority to China. To retain its leadership position, Europe must become more cohesive as its growth slows. International institutions, long governed by the traditional Western powers, will be forced to adjust to this new global economy. 

Creativity for Ideal Constitution

Nepal is near to constitution assembly election-II. Political candidates are vigorously involving to attract voters. Most of the candidates have made baseless and barefaced promises that “We will implement new constitution within one year”.History clearly reveals major parties undecided dramatic meetings to divide and elect prime-minister, president, speaker etc. We know they will lost one year to build the “Sahamati” (consensus) on these matter.We are lucky enough if they will enter to constitutional agendas that were left on last CA within one year.  
Constitution is taken as the law of land, a framework of fundamental rules, living organism, a grand norm, the rule of recognition of the country. The constitution of USA is model of brevity (7000 words) which was implemented more than 200 years ago.The rigid constitution, efficient matured democratic governance system, economic prosperity and provision to unite every citizen of the world with secured environment makes US a global hegemony and considered as dreamland of people around the world.The visionary and critical thinking skills of American leaders of that time were really admirable.

Most of the Nepali are annoyed from activities of political parties and wants to get rid from it. Because of political instability problems such as brain drain, export of labor, economic downturn, negative effect on working cultural etc has occurred. We sovereign Nepali has governed under the flexible interim constitution which was amended more than ten times. We all Nepali are hopeful from the upcoming constitutional assembly. So that some of the major leaders must have to play creative role to provide ideal constitution for our country.Questions are:

Have all possible political systems already invented? 
Can anyone imagine something truly new?
How about at least few major improvements to our system as is currently exist?
 How to end the transition period?

These are the questions that must be analysed by creative leaders.Especially, major political leader who will elect for CA-II. If upcoming major leader use some creative skills and really committed to work for country by creating the consensus environment the solution is possible.This will convey positive and good message to Nepali people with optimism and hope.

Creativity is art of finding unexpected space in problem that seems totally stuck to everyone else. It’s the ability to think “Out of Box” while rests of us barely realize that we are in a box. Even issues that seems totally stuck in CA-I such as governance system, federalism and its model, lengthy process to elect PM, ministers, president etc also have unsuspected possibility.

What is obvious isn't always true, there are other possibilities what is really practical and start looking for them is important.The first step toward creative transformation is to change our very idea of a “problem”. Today “problem” has negative overtones. But creative leader need to think of problems as occasions for ongoing thinking, and have to welcome problems as opportunities to change the world.

It’s sure that CA-II will not free from problems but major leader must have to solve these problems through creative way. If one really wants to be “leader of the Nation” he must think sincerely about the future of Nepal and Nepali.

Optimistic Message

There was an article published in “the guardian”  reveals the status of Nepali migrant labor in Qatar (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/25/revealed-qatars-world-cup-slaves). After five days there is another article published by World Bank under the name “Nepal: Agility in Fragility”(http://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2013/04/16/nepal-agility-in-fragility ) with lots of hopes and optimism to Nepali. These two articles are closely related to Nepal’s extraordinary performance in the achievement of millennium development goals.

Despite prolonged political uncertainties Nepal’s achievement to halve extreme poverty, ahead of time and impressive improvement towards the achievement of other MDGs in the areas of human development, primary education, maternal and infant mortality, gender parity, gender equality and women’s empowerment is really considerable. The reason behind this development results are longstanding partnerships with different agencies and another hidden reason is inflow of remittance by exporting human manpower in Arab countries, where workers are treated as objects as stated by The guardian. But, they are compelled to go foreign country just to make a living because of lacking opportunities in home country. This works for human development by alleviating poverty for short term but not in sustainable manner. This better news to report and say but culture of entrepreneurship development, sovereignty of Nepali, share of agriculture on GDP, is degrading day by day.

Nepal government set the goal to graduate from the LDC status by 2022. But, we can see lots of problems behind ambiguous goal rather than specific plans and ways of achieving these goals. Hunger and extreme poverty will not with us in future but current political scenario reflects further strengthening of different problems like brain drain, trade deficit, corruption, food insecurity, energy crisis etc. Nepal ranks among the most exposed to natural disasters further exacerbated by the climate change but preparation is lacking to address most horrible possible impacts like flooding and earth quake. 

The one better way to address all type of problems is economic development. For this, Political parties have to create the environment, investors have to invest, bureaucrats have to help by avoiding red tapism and every capable citizen of the country has to work hard to exploit the opportunity in global markets within our country. Then only we can send the message to the international community that “our country is not the country of slaves”.

Lesson from Egypt

Mohammod Mursi's dramatic removal after one year in Egypt clearly shows that his failure to meet demands of people for national unity. Army chief of Egypt has announced the immediate suspension of the Islamist-tinged new constitution and a road map for a return to democratic rule under a revised rulebook. He replaces Mursi by constitutional court president. A technocratic government will rule until new presidential and parliamentary elections are held.

Millions of peoples have protested against political upheaval and economic stagnation under Mursi rule. After new announcement, thousands of anti-Mursi protesters are erupted into wild cheering, setting off fireworks and waving flags.

When constitution was taken as pure political manifesto rather than revolutionary manifesto addressing desire of each and every people, such kind of events happened. Constitution is taken as a part of prescriptive and descriptive laws, a philosophy of its own. Constitution promises not only political but also social democracy.In social democracy, liberty equality and fraternity cannot be separated. Principles of equal liberty have to be properly applied, by those who believe in social democracy. In Egypt, Mursi is failed to address fundamental body of rules, so condition of anarchy arises and it will remain crucial in the political transition. Nepali leaders can also learn that if they did not perform as the people wanted, the peoples are ready to support a military coup/monarch in a democracy.

Striking in Life

In soccer,every striker wants to score a goal, so they know where the goalpost are and they were driven toward the goalpost.I doesn’t think every striker who brings ball to near to goalpost score a goal. If they unable to score a goal they say: next time and practice for it. Aiming to achieve a goal and making them reality is different things. It needs lots of passion, hardworking, cooperation and tactics is needed.Every time when we achieve one goal that we stated previously than countdown starts for another. It is human nature and rule of developing oneself also.

Sometimes we have to set a goal that is difficult to achieve in a normal way, they need twice a more hard work, passion and god’s blesses also.  Everyone who set such type of goal may not believe to the “reality distortion fields” that was applied by Steve Jobs (extraordinary person of the century). Believing in “reality distortion field” will help to achieve complicated goals in easy way. For that first I have to know that where the goalpost are and then-after have to play. For all, first I have to play in a real field and have to bring ball near to goalpost. Time will determine either my goals are unachievable or I have applied Steve’s formula in a proper manner.   

Creativity for Critical Thinkers

Creativity is the art of expanding possibility. It is ability to think “out of the box” while the rest of us barely realize that we are in the box. The term critical thinking points toward certain skills. Successful executives use critical thinking skills every day, to sift through incomplete and complex information, ask the right questions, recognize strong versus weak arguments, and to assimilate the information they need to make logical business decisions. Critical thinking is not just the province of executives. Employees at all levels make decisions that affect their level of productivity and the efficient use of resources.  The best thinkers can move quickly and appropriately through the different modes as required by a situation. We don’t need to be a transformational genius to practice meta thinking (thinking about thinking). If we can’t give a compelling version of our opponent’s argument we really have not thought through our own perspectives. Da Vinchi counseled that we should look anything through minimum of three perspectives :

·         Through our own perspective.

·         An alternative perspective.

·         Find a third alternative and view them all with an open mind.

Only then we can say that we have actually thought about something.Greatest genius who ever lived Leonardo Da Vinchi, who is supreme role model of creative thinking. He integrated scientific and artistic way of thinking. There are seven principles of thinking like him :

1.       Never ending curiosity
2.       Become an original thinker
3.       Thrive in the face of ambiguity
4.       Thinking using the whole brain
5.       Balance body and mind
6.       Be system thinker
7.      Sharpening of the senses  

Most importantly the principle lacking in the business world is using the whole mind. Most universities students learn a range of brilliant left hemisphere strategy, but they pretty much have their intuition beaten out of them.

Critical thinking skills cannot be developed overnight. Nonetheless, practicing these habits described here will improve one’s critical thinking ability. As individuals become more successful in using good critical thinking in their everyday decision making, their companies and their life will be more successful in meeting the challenges of continuously changing expectations of peoples.

Revolutionary Change: Diamond like leadership

Diamonds have been considered precious for centuries. They have literally been around since the beginning of time and they will last through eternity. Charismatic leaders are unique and hard to find having their own facets of strength. They are precious because of the value they add to their country just like Li QuanYu adds to Singapore and Nelson Mandela adds to South Africa.

Diamonds is the hardest natural substances in nature, I do not want to say leader to be hard to get along with and towards the people of the country, but I do want to equate hardness of diamond with self determination, self reliance and tough enough not to fracture and break from the economic pressures faced in country today; tough enough to tell the truth; tough enough to cut through problems to solutions. 

Diamonds has greater transparent/clarity than other solid, greater to clarity in diamond add greater the value.If the leader have greater visionary/clear picture of the country than the more productive the folk people’s and co-workers (bureaucrats & political parties) will be.

Diamonds has highest melting point of any natural substances.When it comes to relationships, have a high melting point and give others the benefit of a doubt. Work to raise the melting point of discussions and disagreements. Model towards co-workers and have the ability to pause, think, and then act. Not the reverse order like act first (often inappropriately), then pause and think. 

Diamonds conducts heat better than anything .The heat leaders need to conduct is his/her positive energy and a belief in the future .Leader must have to be conductor of optimism and hope. If he/she can be a positive leader, definitely will be as a beacon of light in the darkness.

To remove the problems in Nepali politics, we need a leader who has mastered above four qualities of the element “Diamond”. We need a charismatic leader harder like diamond to tackle the issues related to diplomatic policy (especially to India & China), transparent to the issues related to economic policy for the better future of people and economic development of the country, high melting points towards the co-working parties and bureaucrats. The leader having these characteristics definitely can lead the country and can be conductor of people's hope i.e. to see developed, prosperous and greater NEPAL.