World Order in 2050

Measured by GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, which adjusts for price level differences across countries, the largest E7 emerging economies seem likely to be bigger than the current G7 economies by 2020, and China seems likely to have overtaken the US by that date. India could also overtake the US by 2050 on this PPP basis (http://www.pwc.tw/en_TW/tw/publications/events-and-trends/assets/e248.pdf).

The weight of global economic activity is already shifting substantially from the G7 countries toward emerging economies in Asia and Latin America. Over the next 40 years, this trend is expected to accelerate.GDP projections from present day through 2050 are made under the assumptions that markets stay open and macroeconomic policies remain sound; additionally, catastrophes—economic, natural, or geopolitical—are assumed not to occur.

Projections: The “Rise of the Rest”

As developing countries house an increasingly larger share of people, capital, and technology, their share of global GDP will increase, shifting the economic balance of power.

"As China, India, Russia, and Brazil join the global middle class, brains and money will increasingly flow away from the United States"

However, as these countries become the world’s largest economies, as well as the most populous, they will not rise among the world’s richest, breaking the decades-old correlation between economic size and per-capita income.

• China, India, and the United States will emerge as the world’s three largest economies in 2050, with a total real U.S. dollar GDP of 70 percent more than the GDP of all the other G20 countries combined.
• In China and India alone, GDP is predicted to increase by nearly $60 trillion, the current size of the world economy. However, the wide disparity in per-capita GDP will remain.
• However, despite these dramatic increases in total GDP, U.S per-capita GDP will be nearly three times that of China and over eight times that of India.
• The next forty years will be a critical period for the European Union (EU) and its 27 members. As economic interests shift away from Europe to favor Asia and Latin America, Europe will likely undergo a difficult and turbulent transition.
• Japan’s influence in Asia will recede further with China’s rise and Indonesia’s rapid expansion. Japan, Asia’s most powerful nation in the twentieth century, will be pressed to develop ever closer economic ties with China, an economy over seven times larger in U.S. dollar terms in 2050, as well as with India, which will be 2.5 times larger.
• Demographic drivers will significantly influence the economic transformation. UN predicts the global population will reach 9.2 billion in 2050, concurrently, the global labor force is expected to expand by nearly 1.3 billion.
• Spreading technology will bolster world economic growth. Developing countries will continue to absorb well established technologies, such as electricity and sanitation. 
• Poverty will no longer be a serious economic and humanitarian concern in 2050. Rapid growth in the emerging economies will pull hundreds of millions of people out of absolute poverty, leaving only a small fraction of the G20 population behind. Absolute poverty will, however, remain a significant, though much smaller, phenomenon in Africa. China and India will be responsible for lifting 600 million more people from the most extreme forms of poverty. 

Risks

Some risks could introduce major discontinuities and undermine these projections, slowing (though not stopping) world economic growth and the convergence process in developing countries.

• Geopolitical Breakdown : The projections suggest that the next forty years may witness one of history’s greatest shifts in economic and military power.Because globalization and economic growth do not occur in a vacuum, maintaining the cohesion of the international community is crucial to its continuation. Advanced countries will expect more from these emerging powers, from contributions to international institutions, to aid, control of carbon emissions, respect of intellectual property, and contributions to international security and economic sanctions against deviant regimes.The rise of several developing countries and the fact that, while they attain the status of giant economies, they remain much poorer than advanced nations, could make maintaining cohesion more difficult. In particular, the governance and functioning of the bedrock international institutions—the G20/G8, World Bank, IMF, WTO, Global Stability Board, and the UN—will have to be rethought.

• Financial Crisis and Depression : The political challenges of dealing with macroeconomic imbalances are formidable. The next set of vulnerabilities may be uncovered in emerging markets, which have become more attractive in the eyes of investors and may have to deal with a wall of inflowing capital in coming years.

• Protectionism : As emerging markets rise in importance but remain relatively low-wage economies—China is now both the world’s largest exporter and one of the most competitive low-wage economies they will become too big to ignore, and pressures to protect against them will increase.

• Climate Change : Climate change will hurt global growth through effects on health outcomes, agricultural yields, involuntary   migration, and the destruction of infrastructure.

• Global Tax Environment: Challenges for Multinationals : For multinationals need to operate in many locations makes tax management especially difficult and just complying with the tax law is far from easy. The main problem is large number of laws and regulations to consider and accelerating pace of change.

World Order in 2050

• China remains on a path to overtake the United States as the world’s largest economic power within a generation, and India will join both as a global leader by mid-century.
•  Traditional Western powers will remain the wealthiest nations in terms of per capita income, but will be overtaken as the predominant world economies by much poorer countries. Given the sheer magnitude of the challenge of lower-wage competition, protectionist pressures in advanced economies may escalate.
•  The global economic transformation will shift international relations in unpredictable ways. To retain their historic influence, European nations will be pressed to conduct foreign policy jointly, an objective implied by their recently ratified constitution, and will need to reach out to emerging powers. Japan and Russia will seek new frameworks of alliances. The largest emerging nations may come to see each other as rivals.
•  Absolute poverty will be confined to small pockets in sub-Saharan Africa and India, though relative poverty will persist, and may even become more acute. Carbon emissions are also on a path toward climate catastrophe, and by mid-century may constitute a serious risk to the global growth forecast.
• International organizations such as the IMF will be compelled to reform their governance structures to become more representative of the new economic landscape. Those that fail to do so will become marginalized.

 In conclusion, we can say that over the next forty years, low- and middle-income countries in Asia and Latin America will become an immensely powerful force in the world economy. The United States will remain a critical player, but will cede at least partial authority to China. To retain its leadership position, Europe must become more cohesive as its growth slows. International institutions, long governed by the traditional Western powers, will be forced to adjust to this new global economy. 

Creativity for Ideal Constitution

Nepal is near to constitution assembly election-II. Political candidates are vigorously involving to attract voters. Most of the candidates have made baseless and barefaced promises that “We will implement new constitution within one year”.History clearly reveals major parties undecided dramatic meetings to divide and elect prime-minister, president, speaker etc. We know they will lost one year to build the “Sahamati” (consensus) on these matter.We are lucky enough if they will enter to constitutional agendas that were left on last CA within one year.  
Constitution is taken as the law of land, a framework of fundamental rules, living organism, a grand norm, the rule of recognition of the country. The constitution of USA is model of brevity (7000 words) which was implemented more than 200 years ago.The rigid constitution, efficient matured democratic governance system, economic prosperity and provision to unite every citizen of the world with secured environment makes US a global hegemony and considered as dreamland of people around the world.The visionary and critical thinking skills of American leaders of that time were really admirable.

Most of the Nepali are annoyed from activities of political parties and wants to get rid from it. Because of political instability problems such as brain drain, export of labor, economic downturn, negative effect on working cultural etc has occurred. We sovereign Nepali has governed under the flexible interim constitution which was amended more than ten times. We all Nepali are hopeful from the upcoming constitutional assembly. So that some of the major leaders must have to play creative role to provide ideal constitution for our country.Questions are:

Have all possible political systems already invented? 
Can anyone imagine something truly new?
How about at least few major improvements to our system as is currently exist?
 How to end the transition period?

These are the questions that must be analysed by creative leaders.Especially, major political leader who will elect for CA-II. If upcoming major leader use some creative skills and really committed to work for country by creating the consensus environment the solution is possible.This will convey positive and good message to Nepali people with optimism and hope.

Creativity is art of finding unexpected space in problem that seems totally stuck to everyone else. It’s the ability to think “Out of Box” while rests of us barely realize that we are in a box. Even issues that seems totally stuck in CA-I such as governance system, federalism and its model, lengthy process to elect PM, ministers, president etc also have unsuspected possibility.

What is obvious isn't always true, there are other possibilities what is really practical and start looking for them is important.The first step toward creative transformation is to change our very idea of a “problem”. Today “problem” has negative overtones. But creative leader need to think of problems as occasions for ongoing thinking, and have to welcome problems as opportunities to change the world.

It’s sure that CA-II will not free from problems but major leader must have to solve these problems through creative way. If one really wants to be “leader of the Nation” he must think sincerely about the future of Nepal and Nepali.